"fear of oil crisis" - that today is the headline the Bild newspaper. On the stock exchanges that fear can be felt for some time, because investors and economists are concerned about whether the oil price surge of recent weeks could jeopardize the recovery of the global economy and with it the stock market boom. Is this fear justified?
riots in Tunisia and then Egypt, the oil markets and the exchanges have coped reasonably well - but the violence in Libya has changed the situation abruptly: The price of Brent crude shot partly in at almost 120 dollars per barrel the altitude, however reduced again to 110 dollars because Saudi Arabia, a rapid and significant expansion of its Oil production has promised. However, fears remain. Although Libya is the only number 17 among the oil producing countries and contributes to 1.3 million barrels, only about 1.5 percent of total daily output of 88 million barrels in - but the concerns ranging much further. If Libya continues to burn
, stop the unrest in key oil hub of Bahrain and the revolution rolls over to other countries of North Africa and the Middle East could threaten a significant loss. From there, about a third of oil production. Where the greatest danger posed by Saudi Arabia. Although the country is only the third-largest oil producer - after Russia and the United States - but it acts as a filler, because it is the only producing country with significant spare capacity. Are estimated at four million barrels per day. If the Saudi production to still nearly nine million barrels is slow, are, according to the Japanese brokerage house Nomura oil prices are possible up to 220 dollars - that were once good 60 dollars more than the record high 2008th Economists see the danger threshold for the global economy at a much earlier - at 120 to 140 dollars. However, this applies only if this price range continues for a long time.
But why is the price of oil so important to the economy and markets? For one, oil is by far the most traded commodity in the world that affects many areas of businesses and consumers into it. The gasoline and heating oil price is just the most visible part of it. A rapid and sustained increase in the price would dashalb inflation fears, which are already available to strengthen significantly because of speed would sooner or indirect effects on the price increase across the board. And the central banks could muster and lead to rate hikes.
short term, the most dangerous are the implications for business investment and consumer spending. The former reduce their investments in uncertain prospects, the latter must be due to high energy costs savings elsewhere, so buy less of other goods. In particular, the U.S. consumers are considered crucial point. The improved economic outlook in the U.S. and the world economy are closely related to a recovery in U.S. consumption combined, attracting much for months. If gasoline prices climb time by 30 cents a gallon, U.S. consumers are missing but some 50 billion dollars a year in the wallet, and that can not be without consequences.
If there is a wildfire in the Arab world, there are only short-term ways to secure supplies and curb inflation. The largest is tapping the strategic oil reserves, which have created almost all consuming countries. In the U.S. alone, they amount to 4.3 billion barrels. That would cover at least the world's oil consumption for 50 days. Anyway - to stop the longer the conflict, the more dangerous is the oil problem. Investors therefore do well to expect a long period of uncertainty and strong price fluctuations.
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