It has become quiet to the debt crisis in Europe. The currency markets play normal: with 1.37 € per dollar the common currency is remarkably stable. But is not displaced solved. This now made the European Advisory Council according to media with new statements clearly the situation in Greece: Despite immense austerity measures the government debt to rise there on alert, the country would not be able to repay its debts. Quite the contrary: Greece needs more money, more money. Is a return to the drachma but the best way?
That sounds tempting: The Greeks get back their drachma, plays down the violent and the industry is internationally competitive at a stroke. And next summer we all go to a nice Greek island and rave about the low prices in hotels and restaurants. Unfortunately the whole thing, of course, thick heels: the debt, Greece is so not happening. Instead, they increase significantly with a blow because they are nominated in expensive foreign currencies. And the financial markets will then vorknöpfen Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which could be forced out sooner or later also from the €-network.
The rest of the euro area would be a bulwark of stability, the core common currency would strongly enhance, decrease the competitiveness for Germany and Austria. Remain so only do what the community tried for some time? By taking over direct loans and buying government bonds, debt. Even Euro-bonds with a single rate for all countries would work in the same direction.
Axel Weber, the outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman has now been reported in a contribution to the Financial Times on the subject. And it is clear that his departure has to do with the fact that he considers this approach to be absolutely unacceptable and it stood increasingly isolated in the euro financial circles. In principle Is he right. As long as the countries of the euro area sovereign decision of its financial policy, no one can demand that a person with the debts of others. But just do nothing, leads inevitably to the Greek state bankruptcy - and then what?
Why no one talks about the third option out there? Rescheduling for bankruptcy States. So that the financial world has been doing very good experience: In Africa, we are currently seeing a growth miracle, after the international community has worked here in a big way with debt relief. The debt crisis in Latin America in the 80s with the help of large-scale debt restructuring for public and dissolved private creditors. Today, the subcontinent's most stable and fastest-growing regions of the world.
course, rescheduling is expensive. The international community and the European Central Bank would waive claims and also may support some banks that are engaged excessively in the affected countries to prevent a new financial crisis. And also for Greece, this possibility is anything but cozy: hard savings and high interest rates would be necessary in order to develop new confidence in the markets. But overall, the costs would likely be lower than those of any other way. So far this is true but considered taboo in political discussion. Only the financial markets seem to gradually adjust to this possibility. After all, they value highly the euro, but clearly differentiate between the interest rates they charge for the government bonds of individual countries. Looks like the markets were once again simply faster than politics.
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